INTRODUCTION & ELDER FACTS

SOME ELDER FACTS TO CONSIDER

Some World Facts at a Glance From the United Nations World  Population  Prospects  July, 2024

People worldwide are living longer. The pace of population ageing is much faster than in the past.

The world’s population is likely to peak within the current century. 

The world’s population is expected to continue growing for another 50 or 60 years, reaching a peak of  around 10.3 billion people in the mid 2080s, up from 8.2 billion in 2024. After peaking, it is projected to start  declining, gradually falling to 10.2 billion people by the end of the century. 

One in four people globally lives in a country whose population has already peaked in size. 

In  63  countries  and  areas,  containing  28  per  cent  of  the  world’s  population  in  2024,  the  size  of  the  population peaked before 2024. In 48 countries and areas, with 10 per cent of the world’s population in 2024, population size is projected to peak between 2025 and 2054. In the remaining 126 countries and areas, the population is likely  to continue growing through 2054, potentially reaching a peak later in the century or beyond 2100. 

Women today bear, one child fewer, on average, than they did around 1990. 

Currently, the global fertility rate stands at 2.3 live births per woman, down from 3.3 births in 1990. More than half of all countries and areas globally have fertility below 2.1 births per woman, the level required for a population to maintain a constant size in the long run without migration. 

Early childbearing has harmful effects on young mothers and their children. 

In 2024, 4.7 million babies, or about 3.5 per cent of the total worldwide, were born to mothers under age 18 –  and some 340,000, to girls under age 15 – with serious consequences for the health and well-being of both the  young mothers and their children. Investing in the education of youth, especially girls, and increasing the ages at marriage and first childbearing in countries where these milestone events tend to occur early will have positive  effects on women’s health, educational attainment and labour force participation. 

Following the COVID-19 pandemic, global life expectancy is rising once again. 

Globally, life expectancy at birth reached 73.3 years in 2024, an increase of 8.4 years since 1995. Further reductions  in mortality are projected to result in an average longevity of around 77.4 years globally in 2054. Since 2022, life  expectancy has returned to pre-COVID-19 levels in nearly all countries and areas. 

The  main  driver  of  global  population  increase  through  mid-century  will  be  the  momentum   created by growth in the past. 

The number of women at ages 15–49 is projected to grow from nearly 2 billion in 2024 to a peak of around 2.2 billion  in the late 2050s, driving continued growth even if the number of births per woman falls to the replacement level.  Today’s youthful age structure, which is a product of past growth, will account for 79 per cent of the population  increase through 2054, adding about 1.4 billion people. 

Countries with youthful populations and declining fertility have a limited time to benefit economically from an increasing concentration of population in the working ages. 

In about 100 countries or areas, the working-age population (between 20 and 64 years) will grow through 2054,  offering a window of opportunity known as the demographic dividend. To capitalize on this opportunity, countries  must invest in education, health, and infrastructure, and implement reforms to create jobs and improve government efficiency. 

By 2080, persons aged 65 or older will outnumber children under 18. 

By the late 2070s, the global population aged 65 and older is projected to reach 2.2 billion, exceeding the number  of children under 18. By the mid-2030s, those aged 80 and over will outnumber infants (1 year of age or less),  reaching 265 million. Countries that are at more advanced stages in the process of demographic ageing should  consider the use of technology to improve productivity at all ages. They should also design more opportunities for  lifelong learning and re-training, support multigenerational workforces and create opportunities to extend working  lives for those who can and want to continue working. 

For some populations, immigration will be the main driver of future growth. 

In 50 countries and areas, immigration is projected to attenuate the decline in population size due to sustained  low levels of fertility and an older age structure. However, in 14 countries and areas already experiencing ultra-low  fertility, emigration is likely to contribute to reducing population size through 2054. 

Situation Critical - The Canadian Demographic Wave

The rapid growth expected among Canada’s senior population in the coming years is one of the most significant demographic trends in the country’s history.

While this growth may present some challenges for younger generations, industry experts say it will also offer opportunities to pave the way for a better future.

Residents aged 65 and older are part of the fastest-growing age group in Canada today.

According to industry experts, sectors such as health care, employment and housing are largely unprepared for an aging population, without the proper systems in place or equipment in hand to address the needs of seniors today. While this may present challenges in the years to come, opportunities will also arise for younger generations to fill the gaps left by an aging population, health, labour and housing experts say.

Additionally, Canada’s fertility rate is lower than the global average of 2.3 births per woman, according to data compiled by the United Nations Population Fund. Since 1980, Canada’s fertility rate has remained at an average of 1.6 births per woman. If this rate stays consistent, the number of seniors in Canada will remain relatively high in the years to come, reaching about 25 per cent of the population by 2043.

Some Quick Canadian Aging Facts

* In 1952 when the Old Age Security was introduced, the payout began at Age 70 and paid $40.00 per month…Life expectancy in 1952 was only 67 years of age.

* On July 1, 2024, there were 20,638,255 men and 20,650,344 women living in Canada.

* Number of persons aged 65 years and older (July 1, 2024) - 7,820,121.

* During 2024, there were 9500 centenarians in Canada, but that number fluctuates due to deaths at any given time, and has consistently increased year over year due to the aging population. It is projected that by 2051, the number of centenarians could reach 40,000.

* The average age of Canada's population will reach between 42.6 years (slow-aging scenario) and 50.1 years (fast-aging scenario) in 2073, up from 41.6 years in 2023.

* For the third year in a row, the median age in Canada decreased slightly (by -0. 3 years in 2023/2024), reaching 40.3 years on July 1, 2024, while the average age saw no change from July 1, 2023 (41.6 years). This contrasts with the general trend of an increasing median and average age from 1967 to 2021.

* The current life expectancy for Canada in 2024 is 83.11 years, a 0.18% increase from 2023. The life expectancy for Canada in 2023 was 82.96 years, a 0.18% increase from 2022. The life expectancy for Canada in 2022 was 82.81 years, a 0.18% increase from 2021.

* The growth in the number of older workers began to accelerate in 2001, the year the first wave of baby boomers turned 55. The labour force participation rate of workers aged 55 and older was 36.4 per cent in April 2024, up from 25.7 per cent in the same month in 2001. The average age of retirees rose to 65.1 in 2023, its highest level since the late 1970s. 

* Consistent with declining fertility rates, the number of Canadians aged 0 to 14 years is increasing more slowly than the number of those aged 15 to 64 years and 65 years and older.

* From July 1, 2023, to July 1, 2024, there were 1.2% more Canadians aged 0 to 14 years (+77,411 people) and 3.2% more Canadians aged 15 to 64 years (+865,310 people). People aged 65 and older increased by 3.4% (+262,394 people), mainly because of the aging of the large cohorts of baby boomers.

The purpose of providing these numbers is to give you a perspective on the impact that aging has in Canada and the world, and the need to have the knowledge to deal with these important issues.  Please note that the previous numbers can change at any time depending on when and how the statistics were taken.